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Table 3 Fitted parameters in Bayesian multivariate models for P. falciparum and P. vivax among school children in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia in 2009, with and without spatial components

From: School-based surveys of malaria in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia: a rapid survey method for malaria in low transmission settings

 

Non-spatial model

Spatial model

 

Parameter

95% BCI

Parameter

95% BCI

P. falciparum

   Without covariates

   σ2school

13.09

5.78-25.4

10.0

2.27-25.0

   Range of spatial correlation (km)

-

-

271

132-794

   DIC (model fit)

120.1

-

113.0

-

   With covariates

   LST: bi-annual phase

OR: 2.11

1.17-4.19

OR: 2.03

0.96-4.00

   σ2school

11.21

5.32-22.4

8.43

2.89-23.9

   Range of spatial correlation (km)

-

-

244

119-758

   DIC (model fit)

121.4

-

113.4

-

P. vivax

   Without covariates

   σ2school

6.31

2.96-13.17

7.03

2.30-19.95

   Range of spatial correlation (km)

-

-

321

154-927

   DIC (model fit)

162.3

-

145.5

-

   With covariates

   EVI: bi-annual amplitude

OR: 1.93

0.91-4.25

OR: 2.06

0.74-4.92

   LST: tri-annual phase

OR: 2.02

0.86-4.26

OR: 1.34

0.44-3.36

   σ2school

6.09

2.98-11.7

8.10

2.32-29.9

   Range of spatial correlation (km)

-

-

355

162-1,589

   DIC (model fit)

159.8

-

146.3

-

  1. OR, odds ratio; 95% BCI, Bayesian credible interval; σ2school is the variance of RE; the range of spatial correlation is the distance at which correlation between sites <5%; DIC is deviance information criterion, a measure of model fit where lower values indicate better fit