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Table 2 Mixture decomposition (MSP-1)

From: Measurement of Plasmodium falciparum transmission intensity using serological cohort data from Indonesian schoolchildren

 i

 titre range

      πi

      φi

       θi

1

-∞ < t < 10

0 (by definition)

0 (by definition)

0.932 (CI: 0.157 – 0.209)

2

10 < t < 40

3.94E-7 (CI: 6.62E-11 – 2.31E-4)

7.43E-6 (CI: 1.93E-9 – 2.67E-3)

0.264 (CI: 0.236 – 0.294)

3

40 < t < 70

1.05E-6 (CI: 2.29E-10 – 4.76E-4)

1.08E-5 (CI: 3.55E-9 – 2.91E-3)

0.1413 (CI: 0.119 – 0.166)

4

70 < t < 100

2.82E-6 (CI: 8.20E-10 – 9.84E-4)

1.59E-5 (CI: 7.16E-9 – 3.21E-3)

0.0774 (CI: 0.0608 – 0.0965)

5

100 < t < 130

7.57E-6 (CI: 2.73E-9 – 2.04E-3)

4.61E-5 (CI: 2.61E-8 – 6.99E-3)

0.0831 (CI: 0.0661 – 0.103)

6

130 < t < 160

2.06E-5 (CI: 1.00E-8 – 4.09E-3)

7.23E-5 (CI: 5.58E-8 – 7.86E-3)

0.0484 (CI: 0.0354 – 0.0640)

7

160 < t < 190

5.57E-5 (CI: 3.76E-8 – 8.28E-3)

1.82E-4 (CI: 1.94E-7 – 0.0146)

0.0449 (CI: 0.0325 – 0.0599)

8

190 < t < 220

1.51E-4 (CI: 1.39E-7 – 0.0159)

3.13E-4 (CI: 4.49E-7 – 0.0175)

2.87E-2 (CI: 1.89E-2 – 0.0412)

9

220 < t < 250

4.06E-4 (CI: 4.99E-7 – 0.0310)

9.43E-4 (CI: 1.85E-6 – 0.0362)

3.20E-2 (CI: 2.17E-2 – 0.0452)

10

250 < t < 280

1.10E-3 (CI: 1.85E-6 – 0.0580)

1.35E-3 (CI: 3.79E-6 – 0.0360)

1.70E-2 (CI: 9.79E-3 – 0.0272)

11

280 < t < 310

2.96E-3 (CI: 6.88E-6 – 0.104)

2.66E-3 (CI: 1.13E-5 – 0.0465)

1.24E-2 (CI: 6.42E-3 – 0.0213)

12

310 < t < 358

7.92E-3 (CI: 2.73E-5 – 0.180)

6.51E-3 (CI: 4.12E-5 – 0.0733)

1.12E-2 (CI: 5.59E-3 – 0.0198)

13

358 < t < 442

0.0210 (CI: 1.13E-4 – 0.291)

0.0176 (CI: 1.87E-4 – 0.124)

0.0112 (CI: 5.59E-3 – 0.0197)

14

442 < t < 561

0.0539 (CI: 4.93E-4 – 0.431)

0.0467 (CI: 8.72E-4 – 0.206)

1.12E-2 (CI: 5.56E-3 – 0.0198)

15

561 < t < 781

0.129 (CI: 2.20E-3 – 0.587)

0.120 (CI: 4.82E-3 – 0.343)

0.0112 (CI: 5.55E-3 – 0.0197)

16

781 < t < 1029

0.278 (CI: 9.45E-3 – 0.741)

0.283 (CI: 0.0351E-2 – 0.610)

0.0113 (CI: 5.57E-3 – 0.0198)

17

1029 < t < 1417

0.500 (CI: 0.0323 – 0.888)

0.399 (CI: 0.122 – 0.932)

6.60E-3 (CI: 2.58E-3 – 0.0136)

  1. Medians and Bayesian Credible Intervals (CI, 2.5th to 97.5th percentile) of the estimated seroprevalence πi in each titre range i and the probabilities φi and θi that a seronegative or -positive person, respectively, has an MSP-1 titre in range i. The overall seroprevalence π was 0.0168 CI (6.27E-4 – 0.0863). The titres of 40 unexposed individuals living in Yogyakarta served as negative control group.