Figure 7

Effectiveness of LLINs depending on host-searching behaviour, insecticide susceptibility, and transmission level. Each line represents the median number of episodes averted per person (panels a, c, e &g) or NHB, which are expressed in DALYs averted per person (panels b, d, f &h) of ten simulation runs during the effective lifetime of a mass distribution, as compared to matching non-intervention scenarios. The red semi-transparent polygons represent the range of the ten runs. Per panel, 14 malaria model variant are shown with colour coding as indicated in the legend of Figure 3. In panels a &b, the π_i value was varied from 60 to 90 %, with a pre-intervention EIR of 16 IBPAPA, and susceptibility of mosquito population ‘Pitoa’. Host-searching behaviour was fully determined. In panels c &d, fully determined host-searching behaviour (Det.) is contrasted with fully probabilistic (Prob.) host-searching behaviour. The π_i value was 0.75, and other parameters were as in the first column of panels. In panels e &f, the susceptibility to pyrethroids is varied from the most resistant population, ‘Akron’, with less than 10.6 % mortality in 0.05% deltamethrin WHO susceptibility tests, to a medium susceptible population, ‘Pitoa’ (70% mortality), to a fully susceptible population, ‘Zeneti’ (100% mortality). The π_i value was 0.75, and other parameters were as in the first column of panels. In panels g &h, the pre-intervention EIR was varied between 32 and 8 IBPAPA for population ‘Pitoa’. The π_i value was 0.75, and other parameters were as in the first column of panels. Note that for each model variant, the middle value displayed is the same for all panels in a row of panels (except for panels c &d, where it corresponds to the left value).