From: Testing a multi-malaria-model ensemble against 30 years of data in the Kenyan highlands
Component | Parameter/exogenous variable | Process-based model | Note% | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAC | AM | WCT | ABP | ||||
Community-based | Total human population at risk | d | d | d | N | 1 | |
Human natural birth | B = δH*N | ||||||
Human natural mortality rate | Assuming a given average lifetime | μ1 | 1 | ||||
Individual losses due to mortality or more generally, population turnover | δH | 1 | |||||
Proportion of total population at risk covered with IRS program campaign | C | 1 | |||||
Proportion of positive cases actually reported to health facilities | λ | 1 | |||||
Malaria parasite | Parasite species | P. falciparum | -- | ||||
Sporogony/malaria parasites incubation period | n | n = fN/(T + l-gN) | n = fN/(T + l*(U-υ)/U-gN) | γP = f(T)& | -- | ||
Number of degree-days needed to complete parasite development | fN | fN | 1 | ||||
Temperature threshold below which parasite development ceases | gN | gN | 1 | ||||
Latency of infection in mosquito vectors | tm | 2 | |||||
Human host | Reciprocal of the average duration of the “affected state” | r = 1/(HD + WN) | r = 1/[HD + wn(t)] | -- | |||
Average time in the exposed phase | 1/γ | 2 | |||||
Host delay for infectivity; length of the interval between infection/sporozoite inoculation and the onset of infectivity/gametocyte maturation (HD) or latency of infection (t h ) | HD | th | 2 | ||||
External force of infection | βe | 2 | |||||
Probability that an infectious bite results in infection | b | 1 | |||||
Host window for immunity; duration of a host’s infectivity to vectors, from the first to the final present of infective gametocytes | WN | wn(t) | 2 | ||||
Loss of immunity basal rate | σ0 | 2 | |||||
Human recovery | Assuming a given mean duration of infectivity | r | 2 | ||||
C to S clearance rate | ρ | 1 | |||||
Fraction of infections in humans that fully develops severe malaria symptoms and then receive clinical treatment | ξ | 2 | |||||
Factor that decreases the per-capita transmission rate when asymptomatic but infectious individuals -I- can present a relapse of severe malaria symptoms if they are bitten again | η | 2 | |||||
I to R recovery basal rate | r0 | 2 | |||||
C to I recovery rate | ν | 2 |