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Table 1 Parameters and exogenous variables – community-based, malaria parasite and human host

From: Testing a multi-malaria-model ensemble against 30 years of data in the Kenyan highlands

Component

Parameter/exogenous variable

Process-based model

Note%

   

MAC

AM

WCT

ABP

 

Community-based

Total human population at risk

d

d

d

N

1

Human natural birth

   

B = δH*N

 

Human natural mortality rate

Assuming a given average lifetime

 

μ1

  

1

Individual losses due to mortality or more generally, population turnover

   

δH

1

Proportion of total population at risk covered with IRS program campaign

  

C

 

1

Proportion of positive cases actually reported to health facilities

  

λ

 

1

Malaria parasite

Parasite species

P. falciparum

--

Sporogony/malaria parasites incubation period

n

n = fN/(T + l-gN)

n = fN/(T + l*(U-υ)/U-gN)

γP = f(T)&

--

Number of degree-days needed to complete parasite development

 

fN

fN

 

1

Temperature threshold below which parasite development ceases

 

gN

gN

 

1

Latency of infection in mosquito vectors

 

tm

  

2

Human host

Reciprocal of the average duration of the “affected state”

r = 1/(HD + WN)

r = 1/[HD + wn(t)]

  

--

Average time in the exposed phase

   

1/γ

2

Host delay for infectivity; length of the interval between infection/sporozoite inoculation and the onset of infectivity/gametocyte maturation (HD) or latency of infection (t h )

HD

th

  

2

External force of infection

   

βe

2

Probability that an infectious bite results in infection

   

b

1

Host window for immunity; duration of a host’s infectivity to vectors, from the first to the final present of infective gametocytes

WN

wn(t)

  

2

Loss of immunity basal rate

   

σ0

2

Human recovery

Assuming a given mean duration of infectivity

  

r

 

2

C to S clearance rate

   

ρ

1

Fraction of infections in humans that fully develops severe malaria symptoms and then receive clinical treatment

   

ξ

2

Factor that decreases the per-capita transmission rate when asymptomatic but infectious individuals -I- can present a relapse of severe malaria symptoms if they are bitten again

   

η

2

I to R recovery basal rate

   

r0

2

  

C to I recovery rate

   

ν

2

  1. & See [36]; % 1: chosen from literature and fixed constant, and 2: chosen from literature and fitted.