Table 2 Parameters and exogenous variables Anopheles mosquito population and environment
From: Testing a multi-malaria-model ensemble against 30 years of data in the Kenyan highlands
Component | Parameter/exogenous variable | Process-based model | Note% | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAC | AM | WCT | ABP | ||||
Mosquito population | Vector natality: rainfall-to-mosquitoes constant (μ), mosquito fecundity factor (F), and number of eggs per oviposition event (n) | μ | μ | μ | F, n | 2 | |
Vector survivorship: daily survival probability (p) | p = α^(1/U) | p = α^(1/U) | p = [α*(1-C) + α*β*C]^(1/U) | 〈λ〉 = f(T)& | |||
Probability of surviving each gonotrophic cycle in an unsprayed population (not covered by the IRS campaign) | α | α | α | 1 | |||
Reduction in α in the population covered by the spray programme immediately after spraying | β | 1 | |||||
Gonotrophic cycle | U = υ + (fU/(T + l-gU)) | U = υ + (fU/(T + l-gU)) | U = υ + (fU/(T + l-gU)) | ||||
Total number of degree days needed to complete development of the ovaries | fu | fu | fu | 1 | |||
Minimum temperature needed to complete development of ovaries | gu | gu | gu | 1 | |||
Length of a part of gonotrophic cycle to find a water body and a new human host | υ | υ | υ | 1 | |||
Vector feeding | a = 0.091678*Te-1.7982 | a = 0.091678*Te-1.7982 | a = h/U | a = 0.091678*Te-1.7982 | |||
Human blood index (proportion of mosquitoes feeding on humans) | h | 1 | |||||
Mortality rate | Assuming a given average lifespan | μ2 | 1 | ||||
Larvae mortality caused by temperature- or rain-independent processes, such as predation | δ0 | 2 | |||||
Per-capita larvae death rate -inverse of the larval average life time- at temperatures of 14, 16, 18, and 20°C | δL(14), δL(16), δL(18), δL(20) | 1 | |||||
Death factor introduced to represent the washout effect for the larvae | δR | 2 | |||||
Vector infectivity: probability of becoming infected per infectious meal (k), probability of becoming infectious with malaria parasites (v) | k and v | 1 | |||||
Proportion of Anopheles mosquitoes with sporozoites in their salivary glands which are actually infective | b | b | 1 | ||||
Vector susceptibility or human host-to-mosquito probability of transmission | c | c | 1 | ||||
Environment | Daily effective temperature | Te = T + (1-xp)*l | Te = T + (1-xp)*l | Te = T + (1-xp)*ΔT | |||
Daily ambient temperature | T | T | T | T | |||
Temperature weighting parameter | xp | xp | -- | xp | 1 | ||
Difference between indoor and outdoor temperatures (l) or maximum allowed difference between the maximum temperature adult mosquitoes can experience and outdoor temperature (ΔT) | l | l | l | ΔT | 1 | ||
Daily/monthly rainfall | P | P | P | P and 〈P〉12& | -- | ||
Larvae carrying capacity | Conversion factor | kA | 2 | ||||
Loss rate | kE | 2 | |||||