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Figure 1 | Malaria Journal

Figure 1

From: Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India

Figure 1

System-4 forecast data selection schematic. Twelve System-4 forecasts are issued for each year starting on the first of each month, extending for seven months per forecast. a) A single composite “monthly” time series was created by extracting a particular month from each forecast, resulting in a time series with constant forecast lead time (shaded months for a three month forecast lead time). b) For seasonal averages (the “seasonal” time series), the continuous forecast issued at the start of a particular month every year is used. The target seasons (shaded) are extracted leading to five potential seasonal averages per year with different forecast lead times. For a forecast lead time of three months, the JAS (SON) season is the average of months 3–5 from the forecast issued in each year in May (July).

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