Figure 3

Average seasonal cycles of temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm/day). Values are shown for ERAI (1981–2010), IMD (1981–2002), TRMM (1998–2010) and the System-4 forecast (1981–2010) monthly time series (see Figure 1a) with a three month lead time for a) temperature in Northwest India, b) temperature in Northeast India, c) rainfall in Northwest India and d) rainfall in Northeast India. Meteorological data spatial variability is illustrated by plus or minus one standard deviation of the mean. The System-4 values are plotted as a box that shows the upper tercile, lower tercile and the mean of the 15 equally-weighted ensemble forecast members and the whiskers indicate the maximum and minimum values.