Figure 8

Skill maps of System-4 malaria forecasts in July, August and September. Skill maps of malaria incidence show the area under the ROC curve for the System-4 malaria forecast seasonal time series (see Figure 1b) averaging months three to five from a May start date against a-c) ERAI (1981–2010), d-f) IMD (1981–2002) and g-i) TRMM precipitation and ERAI temperature (TRMM-ERAI, 1998–2010) for high (above the upper tercile, left column), above average (above the median, central column) and low (below the lower tercile, right column) malaria occurrence. Regions where the ROC area is statistically-significant are stippled. The two boxes enclose the regions of interest in Northwest and Northeast India.