Table 1 Confusion matrix for Tier 2 evaluation of the System-4 malaria forecast seasonal time series
a.) JAS | Event forecast in System-4 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Event in ERAI (1981–2010) | >UT | Yes | No | >M | Yes | No | <LT | Yes | No | ||
Yes | 10 | 0 | Yes | 14 | 1 | Yes | 8 | 2 | |||
No | 5 | 15 | No | 9 | 6 | No | 9 | 11 | |||
Event in IMD (1981–2002) | >UT | Yes | No | >M | Yes | No | <LT | Yes | No | ||
Yes | 6 | 1 | Yes | 11 | 0 | Yes | 5 | 2 | |||
No | 4 | 11 | No | 5 | 6 | No | 8 | 7 | |||
Event in TRMM-ERAI (1998–2010) | >UT | Yes | No | >M | Yes | No | <LT | Yes | No | ||
Yes | 3 | 1 | Yes | 5 | 1 | Yes | 3 | 1 | |||
No | 4 | 5 | No | 4 | 3 | No | 5 | 4 | |||
b.) SON | Event forecast in System-4 | ||||||||||
Event in ERAI (1981–2010) | >UT | Yes | No | >M | Yes | No | <LT | Yes | No | ||
Yes | 8 | 2 | Yes | 14 | 1 | Yes | 8 | 2 | |||
No | 5 | 15 | No | 7 | 8 | No | 5 | 15 | |||
Event in IMD (1981–2002) | >UT | Yes | No | >M | Yes | No | <LT | Yes | No | ||
Yes | 6 | 1 | Yes | 10 | 1 | Yes | 5 | 2 | |||
No | 5 | 10 | No | 5 | 6 | No | 3 | 12 | |||
Event in TRMM-ERAI (1998–2010) | >UT | Yes | No | >M | Yes | No | <LT | Yes | No | ||
Yes | 3 | 1 | Yes | 6 | 0 | Yes | 3 | 1 | |||
No | 1 | 8 | No | 3 | 4 | No | 3 | 6 | |||