Skip to main content

Table 3 Sensitivity analysis of kernel and SaTScan analysis of PCR and serology prevalence for prediction of infection in the second year

From: Hot spot or not: a comparison of spatial statistical methods to predict prospective malaria infections

 

KERNEL

SaTScan

 

Radius

Window population size

Exposure category

<1 m (Household)

100 m

500 m

1,000 m

10%

20%

50%

PCR prevalence quartiles

0.612

0.622

0.611

0.628

0.593

0.616

0.620

Area under ROC

       

Proportion of total nPCR positive in the highest quartile in second year Î…

30.1%

30.2%

33.1%

34.2%

27.1%

29.7%

29.7%

Proportion of the total study population included highest quartile

23.4%

22.7%

25.2%

24.8%

20.3%

22.4%

22.4%

AMA-1 prevalence quartiles

0.583

0.587

0.619

0.618

0.602

0.615

0.647

Area under ROC

       

Proportion of total nPCR positive in the highest quartile in second year Î…

26.6%

29.0%

31.8%

31.9

9.7%

28.9%

48.3%

Proportion of the total study population included highest quartile

22.6%

24.9%

24.8

24.9

6.72%

22.6%

38.0%

MSP-1 19 prevalence quartiles

0.559

0.533

0.602

0.622

0.595

0.612

0.591

Area under ROC

       

Proportion of total nPCR positive in the highest quartile I second year

22.7%

22.8%

19.6%

17.1%

9.4%

11.8%

12.0%

Proportion of the total study population included in the highest quartile

24.9%

24.6%

24.5%

24.5%

13.7%

17.7%

17.8%

MSP-1 19 &/or AMA-1 prevalence quartiles

0.575

0.580

0.585

0.604

-

-

-

Area under ROC

       

Proportion of total nPCR positive in the highest quartile in second year

28.7%

30.8%

31.1%

32.6%

   

Proportion of the total study population included highest quartile

24.6%

24.7%

24.9%

24.5%

   
  1. Î… Proportion of total nPCR positives in the second year that are found in the highest quartile.