Table 3 Expected malaria incidence by forecasting model and observed monthly malaria notification rates per 100 inhabitants of Karuzi, Burundi, in the validation period 2002–2003.
Month | Expected | Observed | Month | Expected | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan 2002 | 6.2 | 8.4 | Jan 2003 | 2.7 | 4 |
Feb | 7.3 | 5.4 | Feb | 3.3 | 3 |
Mar | 5.8 | 5.2 | Mar | 4.3 | 3.4 |
Apr | 5.8 | 3.8 | Apr | 3.9 | 3.6 |
May | 3.3 | 4.4 | May | 4 | 4.3 |
Jun | 5.5 | 4.3 | Jun | 4.7 | 3.7 |
Jul | 4.5 | 4.3 | Jul | 4 | 4.1 |
Aug | 4.5 | 3.1 | Aug | 3.3 | 2.4 |
Sep | 3.5 | 4.1 | Sep | 3.7 | 2.6 |
Oct | 4.1 | 4.7 | Oct | 2.7 | 3.1 |
Nov | 5.5 | 3.2 | Nov | 4.2 | 1.5 |
Dec | 4.4 | 3.2 | Dec | 1.3 | 1.1 |