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Table 1 Parameter values and % reduction for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax rate before and after the breakpoint obtained by using the variance of the Kolmogorov Zurbenko adaptive filter.

From: Malaria transmission pattern resilience to climatic variability is mediated by insecticide-treated nets

Species

Parameter

Before

After

% Reduction

P

P.falciparum

μ ^ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacPC6xNi=xH8viVGI8Gi=hEeeu0xXdbba9frFj0xb9qqpG0dXdb9aspeI8k8fiI+fsY=rqGqVepae9pg0db9vqaiVgFr0xfr=xfr=xc9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaaeqabiWaaaGcbaGafqiVd0MbaKaaaaa@2D9B@

11.56 ± 1.02

3.90 ± 1.15

66.26

B/A

 

α ^ 1 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacPC6xNi=xH8viVGI8Gi=hEeeu0xXdbba9frFj0xb9qqpG0dXdb9aspeI8k8fiI+fsY=rqGqVepae9pg0db9vqaiVgFr0xfr=xfr=xc9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaaeqabiWaaaGcbaGafqySdeMbaKaadaWgaaWcbaGaeGymaedabeaaaaa@2EA0@

1.43 ± 0.42

0.72 ± 0.35

48.59

B/A

 

α ^ 2 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacPC6xNi=xH8viVGI8Gi=hEeeu0xXdbba9frFj0xb9qqpG0dXdb9aspeI8k8fiI+fsY=rqGqVepae9pg0db9vqaiVgFr0xfr=xfr=xc9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaaeqabiWaaaGcbaGafqySdeMbaKaadaWgaaWcbaGaeGOmaidabeaaaaa@2EA2@

1.36 ± 0.44

0.94 ± 0.33

30.88

B/A

 

σ ^ ε 2 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacPC6xNi=xH8viVGI8Gi=hEeeu0xXdbba9frFj0xb9qqpG0dXdb9aspeI8k8fiI+fsY=rqGqVepae9pg0db9vqaiVgFr0xfr=xfr=xc9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaaeqabiWaaaGcbaGafq4WdmNbaKaadaqhaaWcbaGaeqyTdugabaGaeGOmaidaaaaa@306E@

5.76

3.84

33.31

-

P.vivax

μ ^ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacPC6xNi=xH8viVGI8Gi=hEeeu0xXdbba9frFj0xb9qqpG0dXdb9aspeI8k8fiI+fsY=rqGqVepae9pg0db9vqaiVgFr0xfr=xfr=xc9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaaeqabiWaaaGcbaGafqiVd0MbaKaaaaa@2D9B@

4.83 ± 0.62

2.33 ± 0.43

51.76

B/A

 

α ^ 1 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacPC6xNi=xH8viVGI8Gi=hEeeu0xXdbba9frFj0xb9qqpG0dXdb9aspeI8k8fiI+fsY=rqGqVepae9pg0db9vqaiVgFr0xfr=xfr=xc9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaaeqabiWaaaGcbaGafqySdeMbaKaadaWgaaWcbaGaeGymaedabeaaaaa@2EA0@

0.55 ± 0.18

0.11 ± 0.16

80.00

B

 

σ ^ ε 2 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacPC6xNi=xH8viVGI8Gi=hEeeu0xXdbba9frFj0xb9qqpG0dXdb9aspeI8k8fiI+fsY=rqGqVepae9pg0db9vqaiVgFr0xfr=xfr=xc9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaaeqabiWaaaGcbaGafq4WdmNbaKaadaqhaaWcbaGaeqyTdugabaGaeGOmaidaaaaa@306E@

1.17

0.53

54.31

-

  1. . % Reduction is defined as 1- (parameter value before breakpoint/parameter value after breakpoint). For P. falciparum the final model was:
  2. y t = μ + φ1(yt-1- μ) + φ12(yt-12- μ) + α1Tt-3+ α2Tt-12+ ε t and for P.vivax:
  3. y t = μ + φ1(yt-1- μ) + φ12(yt-12- μ) + α1Tt-10+ ε t Model selection process and all parameter values can be seen in Additional file 6. Column P (<0.05) indicates the significance of any parameter B (before breakpoint)/A(after breakpoint)