Table 3 Summary output of Bayesian geostatistical models for the north and south of Somalia.
From: Spatial prediction of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in Somalia
Model/Variables | North | South |
|---|---|---|
Bayesian geostatistical model (no covariates) | Â | Â |
α (Intercept) | -4.62 (-5.44, -4.33) | -2.9 (-3.37, -2.27) |
Ï• (Decay of spatial correlation (degrees latitude and longitude)) | 8.90 (3.11, 12.75) | 4.79 (2.11, 6.97) |
σ2 (Variance of spatial process) | 4.35 (271, 7.14) | 7.14 (5.00, 8.76) |
DIC | 326 | 1,454 |
ME (% Pf PR) | 3.83 | 4.14 |
MAE (% Pf PR) | 4.12 | 5.06 |
AU-ROC* | Â | Â |
   <5% Pf PR | 0.72 (0.64, 0.86) | 0.87 (0.72, 0.91) |
   5–39% Pf PR | 0.66 (0.51, 0.80) | 0.78 (0.66, 0.85) |
   ≥ 40% Pf PR | NA | 0.56 (0.37, 0.73) |
Bayesian geostatistical model (with covariates) | Â | Â |
α (Intercept) | -4.62 (-5.23, -4.10) | -2.86 (-3.79, 2.27) |
Ï• (Decay of spatial correlation) | 10.35 (4.70, 12.88) | 5.78 (2.95, 6.99) |
σ2 (Variance of spatial process) | 3.70 (2.17, 7.14) | 5.00 (3.70, 6.70) |
DIC | 323 | 1,429 |
ME (% Pf PR) | 2.56 | 3.65 |
MAE (% Pf PR) | 4.75 | 5.00 |
AU-ROC* | Â | Â |
   <5% Pf PR | 0.75 (0.64, 0.91) | 0.91 (0.87, 0.99) |
   5–39% Pf PR | 0.64 (0.43, 0.84) | 0.81 (0.70, 0.94) |
   ≥ 40% Pf PR | NA | 0.51 (0.32, 0.83) |
| Â | Odds ratio, (95% Bayes credible interval) | |
Month of survey | Â | Â |
   Feb | Ref | Ref |
   Mar | - | 4.06 (2.20, 7.63) |
   Jun | - |  |
   Jul | 3.25 (0.91, 11.36) | 0.87 (0.48,1.46) |
   Sep | 0.2 (0.02, 1.74) |  |
   Nov | 1.31 (0.33, 4.36) | 0.48 (0.23, 0.96) |
   Dec | - | 1.95 (0.91, 3.90) |
Annual average minimum temperature | Â | Â |
   <median of 20.4/22.1 (North/South)°C | Ref | - |
   >median of 20.4/22.1(North/South)°C | 1.12 (0.84, 1.33) | 0.83 (0.67,0.96) |
Annual average precipitation | 1.70(0.53, 5.44) | 1.41 (1.07, 1.94) |
Distance to water features (km) | 1.22 (0.53, 2.81) | 0.79 (0.74, 1.29) |