Table 1 Bayesian Poisson regression models of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum malaria, Yunnan, China, 1991–2006.
From: Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China
Variable | Plasmodium vivax | Plasmodium falciparum |
|---|---|---|
Relative Risks | ||
Monthly rainfall (10 ml increase) | 1.045 (1.044, 1.046) | 1.037 (1.034, 1.040) |
Monthly maximum temperature (°C increase) | 1.047 (1.045, 1.050) | 1.053 (1.047, 1.060) |
Provincial average temporal trend (annual increase) | 0.948 (0.944, 0.952) | 0.957 (0.949, 0.965) |
Regression of June–September on January–February (log incidence) | ||
Regression slope (Jan–Feb → Jun–Sep) | 0.77 (0.70, 0.84) | 0.90 (0.75, 1.09) |
Variance components (variances on a scale of log incidence) | ||
Spatial random effect | 8.74 (7.90, 9.89) | 12.66 (10.50, 15.58) |
Spatially-smoothed county-level temporal trend | 0.08 (0.06, 0.10) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) |
Seasonal effect (January–February) | 0.02 (0.01, 0.04) | 0.02 (0.01, 0.06) |
Overall Intercept | -2.52 (-2.60, -2.45) | -3.24 (-3.46, -3.04) |