Parameter | Point estimate | 95 % CI | Distribution |
---|---|---|---|
q, low transmission | 1.88 e−3 | 1.224 e−3, 2.217 e−3 | Non-parametric |
q, moderate transmission | 30.50 e−3 | 19.222 e−3, 37.682 e−3 | Non-parametric |
q, high transmission | 184.8 e−3 | 87.972 e−3, 272.147 e−3 | Non-parametric |
Probability of full immunity, r imm | 1.97 % | 1.93 %, 2.17 % | Non-parametric |
Age-related susceptibility factor, k | 1.58 e−2 | 1.02 e−2, 3.63 e−2 | Non-parametric |
Waning of acquired immunity, w | 0 | ||
Probability of asymptomatic infection | |||
a1 | 8.57 % | 0.29, 17.79 % | Non-parametric |
a2 | 38.49 % | 7.74, 43.62 % | Non-parametric |
a3 | 38.58 % | 7.94, 43.82 % | Non-parametric |
a4 | 38.68 % | 8.37, 43.93 % | Non-parametric |
a5 | 38.90 % | 15.65, 44.12 % | Non-parametric |
a6 | 54.19 % | 25.87, 61.82 % | Non-parametric |
Percentage of clinical cases that become severe with good access to care | |||
f1 | 2.40 % | 1.19, 5,46 % | Non-parametric |
f2 | 2.13 % | 1.19, 3.04 % | Non-parametric |
f3 | 2.13 % | 1.19, 3.03 % | Non-parametric |
f4 | 2.05 % | 1.19, 2.92 % | Non-parametric |
f5 | 1.99 % | 1.19, 2.92 % | Non-parametric |
f6 | 1.33 % | 0.96, 2.12 % | Non-parametric |
Vaccine parameters | |||
Vaccine efficacy in infants aged 6–12 weeks | 37.6 % | 35.53, 41.11 % | Log-normal |
Half-life in infants aged 6–12 weeks (months) | 6.2 | 3.3, 11.7 | Log-normal |
Vaccine efficacy in children aged 5–17 months | 58.2 % | 56.5, 59.6 % | Log-normal |
Half-life in children aged 5–17 months (months) | 14.4 | 10.6, 19.2 | Log-normal |