Table 3 Values for fixed parameters
Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
Vaccine efficacy after 1 dose | None | Assumption |
Vaccine efficacy after 2 doses | One quarter of the vaccine efficacy of a full course (see Table 2) | Assumption |
Maternal protection, % of infants protected | 95 % | Assumption |
Waning of maternal protection, wm | 3 months half-life | Similar to previous models |
Probability of recovery from clinical disease, r | 1/3 Half recover after 15 days | Assumption for a context of good access to care |
Access to ACT treatment | Ghana: 55 %, Kenya: 45 %, Tanzania: 62 % and country surveys for 22 countries Average of 31 % for the remaining 17 countries | Sicuri [15] and Demographic and Health Surveys and Malaria Indicators Surveys |
% of severe cases hospitalized | 54 % | Assumed same as access to ACT in public health facilities in Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania |
Relative risk for an untreated uncomplicated episode becoming severe (compared with a treated uncomplicated episode) | 1.84 (95 % CI 1.68, 2.01) | Calculated from the modelled number of severe cases, the % of severe cases hospitalized, and access to treatment [16] |
% of severe malaria cases resulting in sequelae | 1.7 % (range 0.85–2.54 %) | Calculated from the % of cerebral malaria cases with sequelae from WHO report [21], and the % of severe cases that are cerebral malaria [20] |
Case-fatality rate, CFR (% of severe cases) | ||
Treated | 13.6 % (95 % CI 8.4, 18.8 %) | Thwing [22] |
Untreated | 3 × treated cases 40.8 % (95 % CI 25.2, 56.4 %) | Thwing [22] |