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Table 5 Estimated country-level impact of RTS,S vaccination

From: Potential public health impact of RTS,S malaria candidate vaccine in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

Country

Number of vaccinees

Median (95 % CI)

Clinical malaria cases averted

Severe malaria cases averted

Malaria hospitalizations averted

Malaria deaths averted

Vaccination at 6, 10 and 14 weeks

 Burkina Faso

673,961

234,951 (2090, 477,517)

4182 (−6846, 14,515)

3474 (−5688, 12,059)

1092 (−1788, 3,790)

 Democratic Republic of Congo

2,177,255

590,733 (77,960, 1,114,625)

13, 943 (−22,087, 41,080)

11, 583 (−18,349, 34,128)

3641 (−5767, 10,727)

 Ghana

739,857

180,785 (17,756, 344,188)

4080 (−8121, 11,908)

3389 (−6747, 9893)

1065 (−2121, 3109)

 Kenya

1,423,439

96,415 (12,032, 189,548)

2805 (−6042, 9841)

2330 (−5020, 8176)

732 (−1578, 2570)

 Nigeria

3,641,124

1,137,914 (106,434, 2,194,118)

25,223 (−41,239, 77,330)

20,955 (−34,261, 64,243)

6586 (−10,768, 20,192)

 Tanzania

1,879,173

255,645 (37,085, 478,220)

6484 (−13,984, 19,374)

5387 (−11,618, 16,096)

1693 (−3,652, 5059)

 Senegal

469,921

36,048 (7275, 67,343)

1477 (−3337, 4803)

1227 (−2772, 3990)

386 (−871, 1254)

 Uganda

1,462,572

411,047 (11,695, 819,896)

7480 (−14,269, 24,160)

6214 (−11,854, 20,071)

1953 (−3726, 6309)

 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa

25,210,481

5,004,489 (474,867, 9,684,160)

118,736 (−214,795, 372,995)

98,642 (−178,445, 309,873)

31,004 (−56,087, 97,396)

Vaccination at 6, 7.5 and 9 months

 Burkina Faso

488,861

562,795 (327,910, 669,793)

9985 (−54, 19,791)

8295 (−45, 16,441)

2607 (−14, 5168)

 Democratic Republic of Congo

1,551,474

1,414,342 (923,277, 1,657,736)

28,922 (1270, 54,286)

24,028 (1,055, 45,099)

7552 (332, 14,175)

 Ghana

541,400

468,774 (323,528, 549,868)

8254 (82, 15,470)

6857 (69, 12,852)

2155 (22, 4040)

 Kenya

1,041,584

260,446 (189,489, 307,495)

5,641 (−636, 11,453)

4,686 (−528, 9,515)

1473 (−166, 2991)

 Nigeria

2,624,558

2,749,346 (1,748,642, 3,234,411)

54,546 (1758, 103,606)

45,315 (1460, 86,073)

14,243 (459, 27,054)

 Tanzania

1,382,820

693,506 (515,124, 811,055)

12,453 (−451, 23,670)

10,346 (−375, 19,665)

3252 (−118, 6181)

 Senegal

344,479

101,544 (80,459, 118,862)

2741 (−315, 5441)

2277 (−262, 4520)

716 (−82, 1421)

 Uganda

1,072,051

1,038,791 (657,896, 1,229,031)

16,671 (−72, 32,293)

13,850 (−60, 26,828)

4353 (−19, 8432)

 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa

18,313,808

12,484,309 (8,242,412, 14,696,728)

250,448 (−433, 481,819)

208,064 (−359, 400,280)

65,397 (−113, 125,813)

  1. Estimated numbers of vaccinees and median and 95 % CIs for the number of clinical malaria cases, severe malaria cases, malaria hospitalizations and malaria deaths averted by RTS,S vaccination with doses administered either at 6, 10 and 14 weeks or at 6, 7-and-a-half and 9 months
  2. Outcomes are estimated for the annual birth cohort in each country, beginning in 2017 and following the cohort until the age of 10 years, assuming no change in malaria transmission