No | Variables | Description | Source |
---|---|---|---|
Biophysical variables | |||
1 | Air temperature | Air temperature suitable for malaria transmission i.e. between 16 and 34 °C | |
2 | Water temperature | Mosquito habitat temperature suitable for breeding | |
3 | El-Nino | Periods of extreme rainfall | |
4 | Average rainfall/precipitation | Mean monthly rainfall of at least 150Â mm; rainfall season | |
5 | Relative humidity | Amount of water vapour present in air | |
6 | Altitude | Height/distance above sea level | |
7 | Micro-habitat changes | Changes in mosquito habitat micro-climate due to loss of forest cover or other environmental controls such as clearing of bushes | |
8 | Topography | Physical land surface including hills and valleys, elevation | |
9 | Topographic wetness index | Percentage of ground water saturation of at least 5% for suitable mosquito breeding site | |
10 | Wetlands and water bodies | Proximity to swamps and other stagnant water bodies | |
11 | Bare areas | Land without forest cover or other vegetation | |
12 | Forest edge | Human proximity to forest boundaries and potential exposure to exposed mosquito breeding sites due to deforestation | |
13 | Agriculture | Land clearance, planting, livestock and maize farming, swamp drainage and farming, and water management i.e. water conservation using shallow wells, small-scale irrigation and creation of water drainage channels | |
14 | Vector abundance | Increase in numbers of malaria mosquitoes | |
15 | Vector biting | Likelihood of an infective bite from a mosquito | |
16 | Vector infection rate | Efficiency of transmission and infection with the malaria parasite by the mosquito | |
17 | Vector adaptive behaviour | Changes in mosquito vector behaviour such as early biting or indoor resting | Expert input |
18 | Population under 5Â years | Number of individuals under 5Â years old | |
19 | Immune status | Lowered immunity to malaria due to pregnancy or inexposure; acquired immunity to malaria from long term exposure | |
20 | Interactions | Co-infections with other diseases such as HIV increase likelihood and severity of infection | |
21 | Drug resistance | Resistance of the malaria parasite to drugs/parasite evolution | |
Socio-economic variables | |||
22 | Urbanisation | Expansion of urban areas and overcrowding in cities | [49] |
23 | Population migration/travel | Movement of people from low risk areas to malaria-endemic or epidemic-prone areas and vice versa | |
24 | Nutritional status | Poor health as a result of undernutrition or malnutrition | |
25 | Gender | Gender roles, expectations and cultural customs | |
26 | Poverty | Socio-economic conditions; household income, food and household assets | |
27 | Religious beliefs | Religion or superstitions in understanding or managing malaria and/or climate change impacts | |
28 | Perception | Knowledge and understanding of disease | |
29 | Type of house | House with grass-thatched roof and mud walls (semi-permanent) or Bbrick house with tiled or aluminium roof (permanent); house with separate kitchen, house with ceiling and house with open eaves | |
30 | Education level of household head | Education level of male or female head of household | [33] |
31 | Health-seeking behaviour | Willingness to seek treatment for malaria; households with malaria medicine in stock, self-medication, tradition/cultural norms and practices in malaria management | |
32 | Net use | Use of insecticide-treated bed nets to prevent malaria infection | |
33 | Environmental controls | Keeping area around the houses cleared of shrubs and other overgrowth; safe disposal of plastics and other water-retaining containers | |
34 | Quality of health systems | Health services and policy; availability of health facilities; access to healthcare; quality of healthcare and capacity for malaria treatment | |
35 | Malaria vector control | Distribution and coverage of insecticide-treated bed nets by the government; coverage of households sprayed with malaria insecticide (indoor residual spraying) | |
36 | Quality of information | Reliable and easy to understand information systems for communicating weather and climate information or early warning systems for malaria epidemics |