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Table 3 Model forecasting and validation for 2-, 3-, 6-, and 12-step ahead predictions for both models, with or without the external regressor (EVI at a lag of 2 months) over the period from January 2014 to September 2015

From: Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence

Steps ahead

Model

Model 1

Model 2

(4,1,1) × (1,0,1)12

(4,1,1) × (1,0,1)12—lag 2 vegetation

(1,1,1) × (1,0,1)12

(1,1,1) × (1,0,1)12—lag 2 vegetation

MSE

R2

MSE

R2

MSE

R2

MSE

R2

2

0.041

0.897

0.045

0.887

0.045

0.887

0.041

0.897

3

0.075

0.812

0.075

0.810

0.064

0.838

0.066

0.833

6

0.113

0.634

0.132

0.666

0.107

0.729

0.107

0.729

12

0.160

0.595

0.168

0.575

0.145

0.633

0.144

0.638

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Malaria Journal

ISSN: 1475-2875

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