Fig. 4

OpenMalaria simulation results for ABER (African scenario) with an annual pre-intervention EIR of 0.1 infectious bites per adult per year, case management coverage of 80%, and LLIN coverage of 80% during the period of vector control implementation. ABER represents the number of diagnostic tests used per person over the previous month (smoothed to remove the visual effects of widely varying ABER between time periods with quarterly MSAT surveys and normalised to units of tests per person per year) and the x-axis is in months. Each chart shows simulations results for varied levels of IIR and active surveillance (through quarterly MSAT coverage). These values are shown just above each chart in the form: IIR per thousand per year (top line), proportion of population tested per quarter (second line). Colours of lines within the chart represent simulation runs with different random seeds (thus capturing stochastic uncertainty). LLINs are distributed at months 36, 72, 108, 144. Increased active surveillance starts immediately coincident with the last distribution of LLINs