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Fig. 5 | Malaria Journal

Fig. 5

From: Estimating the potential impact of Attractive Targeted Sugar Baits (ATSBs) as a new vector control tool for Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Fig. 5

a, b Model-predicted all-ages parasite prevalence (a) and clinical incidence (b) over the course of 3 years after introduction of ATSBs (red line) and without ATSBs during the same period (black line). The green dotted line shows the assumed rainfall pattern (in arbitrary units). For these runs the excess mortality µATSB is set to the average value estimated from field trial results (0.09/day). Shaded areas represent range of values obtained using model parameters in 95% credible interval. c, d Model-predicted reduction in all-age year-round parasite prevalence (c) and clinical incidence (d) in first year of ATSB use as a function of prevalence/incidence under non-ATSB conditions and ATSB excess mortality µATSB. All simulations use the seasonal Mali rainfall profile shown in a and b

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