Fig. 6

a, b Model-predicted all-age parasite prevalence (a) and clinical incidence (b) over the course of 3 years after introduction of ATSBs (red line) and without ATSBs during the same period (black line) under the assumption of constant rainfall (green dotted line) For these runs the excess mortality µ_ATSB is set to the average value estimated from field trial results (0.09/day). Shaded areas represent range of values obtained using model parameters in 95% credible interval. c, d Model-predicted reduction in all-ages year-round prevalence (c) and clinical incidence (d) as a function of prevalence/incidence under non-ATSB conditions and ATSB excess mortality µ_ATSB, assuming constant rainfall