A mathematical model of seropositivity to malaria antigen, allowing seropositivity to be prolonged by exposure

Malaria Journal

Table 1 Comparison of estimates of seroconversion rate (SCR) and duration of seropositivity to MSP1 ₁₉ using catalytic and superinfection models fitted to data from 12 villages/sites in Tanzania

Villages	Altitude (meters)	§ Catalytic model[5](1)	§ Superinfection model (2)	((2) – (1))*100 / (1)	% change in Std. Err.	Predicted EIR[18]
		SCR (Std. Err.)	SCR (Std. Err.)	% change in SCR
Mgila	375	0.1228 (0.0139)	0.1451 (0.0116)	18	-17	39.1002
Kadando	528	0.0959 (0.0104)	0.1097 (0.0098)	14	-6	16.3467
Kambi ya Simba	746	0.0753 (0.0067)	0.0857 (0.0073)	14	6	4.7182
Ngulu	832	0.0869 (0.0077)	0.0980 (0.0080)	13	4	2.8899
Tamota	1055	0.0574 (0.0061)	0.0726 (0.0066)	26	8	0.8107
Goha	1163	0.0239 (0.0028)	0.0306 (0.0034)	28	24	0.438
Lambo	1188	0.0099 (0.0017)	0.0123 (0.0021)	25	24	0.3799
Funta	1240	0.1033 (0.0108)	0.1197 (0.0101)	16	-7	0.2824
Mpinji	1445	0.0065 (0.0012)	0.0083 (0.0015)	27	29	0.0878
Kilomeni	1556	0.0046 (0.0010)	0.0058 (0.0013)	27	27	0.0466
Kwadoe	1564	0.0071 (0.0015)	0.0092 (0.0019)	29	29	0.0445
Bwambo	1598	0.0041 (0.0009)	0.0054 (0.0012)	31	30	0.0367
Average				22
Reversion rate		0.0139 (0.0029)	0.0426 (0.0062)
Duration in years		72	23

§ The models were estimated using Stata software’s ml command; Standard errors were approximated to 4 decimal places but actual values were used in calculating the % change.

ISSN: 1475-2875