Optimizing the programmatic deployment of the anti-malarials artemether-lumefantrine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine using pharmacological modelling

Table 7 Predicted time to recrudescence (in days) for artemether-lumefantrine (AM-LF) in populations of 10,000 individuals for different treatment scenarios group by dosing regimen (according to Table 2 ) and geographical region

Treatment scenario		Age-based dosing regimen				Weight-based dosing regimen
Full course, i e, twice daily over three days at 0, 8, 24, 36, 48 and 60 hours	Min.	14	12	14	11	14	12	14	11
	1st Qu.	22	19	24	18	22	19	24	18
	Median	29	27	31	28	29	28	30	28
	Mean	33	31	34	30	31	31	31	29
	3rd Qu.	46	46	48	44	41	43	38	38
	Max.	57	53	58	52	57	53	56	52
Fifth dose missed	Min.	10	8	10	8	10	8	10	8
	1st Qu.	17	14	19	20	17	17	19	20
	Median	30	28	30	35	25	28	28	36
	Mean	30	30	31	32	30	31	32	33
	3rd Qu.	44	45	46	43	46	46	47	43
	Max.	54	59	55	57	54	59	57	57
Sixth dose missed	Min.	10	8	10	8	10	8	10	8
	1st Qu.	17	14	19	20	17	17	19	20
	Median	30	28	30	35	25	28	28	36
	Mean	30	30	31	32	30	31	32	33
	3rd Qu.	44	44	45	43	46	46	46	43
	Max.	54	59	55	57	54	59	56	57
Fifth and sixth dose missed	Min.	6	5	7	5	6	5	7	5
	1st Qu.	25	28	22	27	19	28	22	27
	Median	35	38	33	38	37	37	36	38
	Mean	33	35	33	36	33	34	33	35
	3rd Qu.	43	45	43	45	43	45	44	45
	Max.	62	61	62	60	62	61	59	60
Third, fourth, fifth and sixth dose missed	Min.	3	5	5	3	3	4	3	3
	1st Qu.	19	21	23	21	19	18	18	18
	Median	26	30	31	29	25	25	25	24
	Mean	27	30	31	30	26	26	26	25
	3rd Qu.	34	39	39	38	34	33	34	32
	Max.	61	61	63	63	61	63	61	63
Third, fourth, fifth and sixth dose delayed by 12 hours	Min.	14	12	14	11	14	12	14	11
	1st Qu.	22	19	24	18	22	18	24	18
	Median	29	26	31	29	29	27	30	28
	Mean	33	30	34	30	32	29	31	29
	3rd Qu.	46	40	48	44	41	38	38	38
	Max.	57	54	58	52	57	54	56	52
Increased IC₅₀ by 50-fold for LF and 10-fold for AM and DHA	Min.	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
	1st Qu.	15	14	15	14	15	14	14	14
	Median	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
	Mean	21	21	21	20	21	21	21	20
	3rd Qu.	27	27	27	26	26	26	26	26
	Max.	51	57	51	62	54	57	55	55
Administered without food, i e, 50% lower dose for LF	Min.	11	12	14	11	11	9	12	8
	1st Qu.	20	19	24	18	20	19	15	18
	Median	25	27	31	28	23	28	24	29
	Mean	28	31	34	30	27	29	27	30
	3rd Qu.	39	46	48	44	34	40	34	41
	Max.	52	53	58	52	52	48	52	49

DHA: dihydroartemisinin; IC₅₀: Concentration producing half the desired effect; Min.: minimum; Qu.: quartile; Max.: maximum.

ISSN: 1475-2875