Figure 6

Box plots of the anomalies of the DEMETER re-forecasts over Kagera region. Also plotted are the observed climatic anomalies at Bukoba station and the anomalies in log malaria incidence data reported at Ndolage hospital. The horizontal line shows the median while the edges of the box represent the upper and lower quartiles of the 63 DEMETER ensembles. The ends of the whiskers show the minimum and maximum values of the DEMETER re-forecasts. First, the DEMETER forecasts of maximum temperature anomalies for the Aug-Jan season are compared to the observed temperature and malaria anomalies (a). Second, the DEMETER forecasts of total rainfall during the same period are compared to the corresponding observed rainfall and malaria anomalies (b). Third, the DEMETER forecasts of total rainfall during the second rainy season (February starting date) are compared to the corresponding observed rainfall and malaria anomalies (c). Fourth, the six-month DEMETER forecasts of total rainfall during the same period are combined with the observed maximum temperature anomalies during the first rainy season using the 'C3' linear regression model. These resulting malaria forecasts anomalies are compared to the weather observation predicted malaria and observed malaria anomalies (d). The anomalies were standardized by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation.