Fig. 2

Predicted age-seroprevalence curves for MSP-1₁₉ between 1988 and 2011 in Farafenni, The Gambia. MSP-1₁₉ seroconversion curves per survey using the reversible catalytic model (with a fixed common seroreversion rate across all five surveys: 0.028 year⁻¹). In the separate graphs for the five surveys (a–e) solid lines represent the fitted probability for being seropositive to MSP-1₁₉, dotted lines represent the 95 % confidence interval for these fits and triangles represent the observed proportion of seropositives per age decile. The five separate fits are combined in graph (f)