Fig. 1

Elements of the falciparum malaria transmission cycle (a–c) and their impact on variability in the generation interval (d, e). The first such elements that were delineated were the liver emergence period (LEP) and human-to-mosquito transmission period (HMTP), which differed for primary cases treated with anti-malarial drugs or not (a). The third element was the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), whose mean values differed across four representative sites (b). The fourth element was the mosquito-to-human transmission period (MHTP), the distribution of which differed for the same four sites due to differences in mean daily mosquito mortalities (c). Combining these elements produced four site-specific GI distributions for treated (d) and untreated (e) primary case scenarios. GI distributions with values of the entomological parameters averaged across sites are shown for comparison in d and e