Fig. 3

Example calibration of transmission seasonality and intensity in the Akinyele archetype. A Simulated seasonality of clinical malaria within the Akinyele archetype compared with rescaled RIA health facility confirmed malaria case data for years 2014–2018. Red: 50 individual stochastic realizations (thin lines) and mean (thick line) incidence of the same modelled seasonality and scaling. Blue: RIA data with 95% confidence intervals. B Larval habitat scale factor sampling used to match simulated PfPR in the Akinyele archetype baseline model to PfPR in the 2010 MIS. Red dot: best match scale factor. C Red: simulated U5 PfPR in the Akinyele archetype. The thick red line indicates the best match while thin red lines show PfPR under other larval habitat scale factors. Each line (thick and thin) is the mean of 10 stochastic realizations. Black: archetype U5 PfPR from the 2010 MIS, with 95% confidence intervals