Table 4 Percent change in mortality in 2025 and 2030 relative to the BAU 2020 projected incidence
From: Application of mathematical modelling to inform national malaria intervention planning in Nigeria
Scenario | All age mortality percent change in 2025 relative to BAU 2020 (%) | U5 mortality percent change in 2025 relative to BAU 2020 (%) | All age mortality percent change in 2030 relative to BAU 2020 (%) | U5 mortality percent change in 2030 relative to BAU 2020 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | − 2.2 (0.5, − 5.9) | − 3.8 (0.3, − 9.1) | 1.2 (4.1, − 4.6) | − 1.7 (2.4, − 9.5) |
2 | − 69.6 (− 68.8, − 70.3) | − 79.0 (− 78.2, − 79.9) | − 75.6 (− 74.1, − 76.6) | − 86.1 (− 84.6, − 87.5) |
3 | − 43.4 (− 40.6, − 45.7) | − 51.4 (− 50.3, − 54.2) | − 53.8 (− 52.6, − 54.3) | − 63.4 (− 61.1, − 65) |
4 | − 45.1 (− 41.9, − 46.0) | − 53.8 (− 51.9, − 55.1) | − 56.1 (− 54.1, − 57) | − 67.2 (− 65.3, − 68.9) |