Time series analysis of malaria cases to assess the impact of various interventions over the last three decades and forecasting malaria in India towards the 2030 elimination goals

Table 1 Trend of malaria during 3 decades of 1990–2000, 2001–2010, and 2011–2022

Species	Period	Yearly malaria cases (millions)						Yearly percent decline
		Mean	95% CI		Median	Q1	Q3	Mean	95% CI		Median	Q1	Q3
		Mean	Lower	Upper	Median	Q1	Q3	Mean	Lower	Upper	Median	Q1	Q3
Malaria	1990–2000	2.38	2.14	2.63	2.22	2.12	2.66	0.64	− 7.42	8.69	2.19	− 11.07	4.89
	2001–2010	1.75	1.61	1.89	1.80	1.56	1.87	− 2.15	− 6.84	2.54	1.34	− 5.16	2.45
	2011–2022	0.73	0.45	1.01	0.86	0.26	1.09	− 14.31	− 27.67	− 0.95	− 17.76	− 21.80	− 0.46
P. falciparum	1990–2000	1.00	0.90	1.09	1.01	0.88	1.14	4.02	− 4.78	12.82	1.38	− 4.60	16.15
	2001–2010	0.85	0.80	0.90	0.84	0.80	0.89	− 2.05	− 7.19	3.10	− 2.55	− 9.56	4.38
	2011–2022	0.42	0.25	0.59	0.49	0.14	0.68	− 12.51	− 29.80	4.78	− 17.40	− 24.22	− 5.48
P. vivax	1990–2000	1.38	1.19	1.58	1.27	1.19	1.65	− 1.57	− 11.47	8.34	− 0.92	− 10.95	8.41
	2001–2010	0.90	0.80	1.00	0.94	0.77	1.01	− 2.11	− 8.47	4.25	− 1.79	− 6.60	5.79
	2011–2022	0.30	0.19	0.42	0.34	0.13	0.40	− 14.75	− 27.86	− 1.64	− 15.92	− 20.13	− 6.45

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