Table 3 Posterior means and Bayesian credible intervals of predicted relative risk of malaria morbidity estimated from the Bayesian Hierarchical Spatio-temporal model with and without covariates (2016–2021)
From: Modelling spatiotemporal variation in under-five malaria risk in Ghana in 2016–2021
Parameters | Model 1 | Model 2 |
|---|---|---|
Posterior mean (95% Cr.I) | Posterior mean (95% Cr.I) | |
Fixed effect | ||
Intercept | − 0.07 (− 0.12, − 0.26) | 10.22 (− 4.1 1, 24.55) |
Log number of children under 5 years | - | 0.95 (− 13.82, 15.73) |
Log number of males | – | − 1.82 (− 16.59, 12.95) |
Random effect | ||
\({\tau }_{\mu }^{-1}\) | 20,458.78 (1508.20,6.90×10+4) | 25,059.51 (1966.54 102,239.83) |
\({\tau }_{\vartheta }^{-1}\) | 1.13 (1.05, 1.21) | 1.49 (1.39, 1.60) |
\({\tau }_{\gamma }^{-1}\) | 127.70 (22.50, 4.25 ×10+2) | 113.54 (21.32, 318.45) |
\({\tau }_{\varnothing }^{-1}\) | 24,762.67 (1251.56, 1.23 ×10+5) | 27,924.84 (2009.64, 122,507.24 |
Model evaluation metrics | ||
DIC | 21,118.20 | 21,121.27 |
WAIC | 20,648.16 | 20,655.43 |